President Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election by defeating former President Donald Trump with 306 electoral votes to 232. Biden flipped five states that Trump had won in 2016: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He also won Nebraska’s second congressional district, which had gone to Trump four years earlier. However, Biden’s victory was not a landslide, as he won some of these states by narrow margins and faced strong opposition from Trump and his supporters, who refused to concede and challenged the election results in courts.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, Biden faces several challenges that could affect his chances of winning a second term. He has to deal with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the economic recovery, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the immigration crisis, the climate change agenda, and the polarization of the country. He also has to contend with a possible rematch with Trump, who remains popular among Republicans and has hinted at running again. Alternatively, he may face a new Republican challenger who could appeal to different segments of the electorate.
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How many of the states that Biden won in 2020 will vote against him in 2024? This is a difficult question to answer, as there are many factors and uncertainties that could influence the outcome. However, based on the current polls, trends, and scenarios, here are some possible predictions:
- Arizona: Biden won Arizona by 0.3 percentage points in 2020, becoming the first Democrat to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1996. Arizona has been trending blue in recent years due to its growing Latino population, suburban voters, and moderate Republicans who rejected Trump’s style and policies. However, Arizona is still a competitive state that could swing back to the GOP in 2024. The state’s Republican-led legislature has passed a controversial law that restricts voting access and empowers partisan audits of election results. The state’s governor, Doug Ducey, is term-limited and may run for the Senate or the presidency in 2024. The state’s senior senator, Kyrsten Sinema, is a moderate Democrat who has faced criticism from her own party for opposing some of Biden’s agenda items. If Trump runs again or endorses a candidate who can rally his base and win over some independents, Arizona could vote against Biden in 2024.
- Georgia: Biden won Georgia by 0.2 percentage points in 2020, becoming the first Democrat to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1992. Georgia also elected two Democratic senators in runoff elections in January 2021, giving Democrats control of the Senate. Georgia’s political shift was driven by its diverse and urbanized population, especially Black voters who turned out in record numbers to support Biden and other Democrats. However, Georgia is also a highly contested state that could revert to the GOP in 2024. The state’s Republican-controlled legislature has enacted a sweeping law that limits voting access and gives more power to partisan officials over election administration. The law has sparked lawsuits and boycotts from civil rights groups and corporations. The state’s governor, Brian Kemp, is up for re-election in 2022 and may face a primary challenge from Trump or his allies. The state’s junior senator, Raphael Warnock, is also up for re-election in 2022 and may face a tough opponent from the GOP. If Trump runs again or backs a candidate who can energize his base and suppress Democratic turnout, Georgia could vote against Biden in 2024.
- Michigan: Biden won Michigan by 2.8 percentage points in 2020, reclaiming the state that Trump had won by 0.2 percentage points in 2016. Michigan was one of the key battleground states that decided the outcome of the election. Biden’s victory was fueled by his strong performance in Detroit and its suburbs, as well as his appeal to white working-class voters who had supported Trump four years earlier. However, Michigan is also a volatile state that could flip back to the GOP in 2024. The state has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout. The state’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer, is up for re-election in 2022 and has faced fierce opposition from Republicans and anti-lockdown protesters over her handling of the crisis. The state’s senior senator, Debbie Stabenow, is also up for re-election in 2022 and may face a competitive race from the GOP. A recent poll shows that Biden leads Trump by only one point in Michigan. If Trump runs again or supports a candidate who can capitalize on the state’s discontent and dissatisfaction, Michigan could vote against Biden in 2024.
- Pennsylvania: Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2 percentage points in 2020, restoring the state that Trump had won by 0.7 percentage points in 2016. Pennsylvania was another crucial swing state that determined the outcome of the election. Biden’s victory was powered by his strong performance in Philadelphia and its suburbs, as well as his ability to win back some of the white working-class voters who had defected to Trump in 2016. However, Pennsylvania is also a competitive state that could switch back to the GOP in 2024. The state’s Republican-controlled legislature has passed a bill that would impose new voting restrictions and give more power to partisan lawmakers over election oversight. The bill has been vetoed by the state’s Democratic governor, Tom Wolf, but Republicans may try to override it or pass a constitutional amendment. The state’s governor and senior senator, both Democrats, are term-limited and will not run for re-election in 2022. The state’s junior senator, Pat Toomey, a Republican, is also retiring in 2022. These open seats could create opportunities for both parties to gain or lose ground in the state. If Trump runs again or endorses a candidate who can mobilize his base and exploit the state’s divisions, Pennsylvania could vote against Biden in 2024.
- Wisconsin: Biden won Wisconsin by 0.6 percentage points in 2020, recovering the state that Trump had won by 0.8 percentage points in 2016. Wisconsin was another pivotal swing state that decided the outcome of the election. Biden’s victory was driven by his strong performance in Milwaukee and Madison, as well as his appeal to suburban and rural voters who had supported Trump in 2016. However, Wisconsin is also a close state that could flip back to the GOP in 2024. The state has been divided along partisan lines for years, with Republicans dominating the legislature and Democrats controlling the governorship and the courts. The state’s governor, Tony Evers, is up for re-election in 2022 and may face a tough challenge from Republicans who have opposed his pandemic response and budget proposals. The state’s senior senator, Ron Johnson, a Republican, is also up for re-election in 2022 and may run for a third term despite his previous pledge to serve only two terms. Johnson is one of Trump’s most loyal allies and has echoed his false claims of election fraud. If Trump runs again or backs a candidate who can rally his base and sway some swing voters, Wisconsin could vote against Biden in 2024.
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Summary Table
| State | Margin in 2020 | Factors that could affect 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Biden +0.3 | Voting restrictions, GOP governor race, Sinema’s moderation |
| Georgia | Biden +0.2 | Voting restrictions, GOP governor race, Warnock’s re-election |
| Michigan | Biden +2.8 | COVID-19 impact, Whitmer’s re-election, Stabenow’s re-election |
| Pennsylvania | Biden +1.2 | Voting restrictions, open governor seat, open senator seat |
| Wisconsin | Biden +0.6 | Partisan polarization, Evers’ re-election, Johnson’s re-election |
FAQ
Q: How many electoral votes does Biden need to win in 2024?
A: Biden needs at least 270 electoral votes to win in 2024.
Q: Which states are considered safe for Biden or Trump in 2024?
A: According to the Cook Political Report, there are 23 states that are considered safe for Biden (232 electoral votes) and 22 states that are considered safe for Trump (188 electoral votes) in 2024.
Q: Which states are considered toss-ups or leaners in 2024?
A: According to the Cook Political Report, there are seven states that are considered toss-ups (75 electoral votes) and six states that are considered leaners (43 electoral votes) in 2024.
Q: How reliable are polls and predictions for the 2024 election?
A: Polls and predictions are not always accurate or reliable for the presidential election, as they may change over time or be affected by various factors.
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