The US House of Representatives is expected to vote on a new speaker in November, after the current speaker, Nancy Pelosi, announced her retirement. However, the process of choosing her successor is not straightforward, especially for the Republicans, who are hoping to regain the majority in the 2022 midterm elections.
The Republicans currently have 212 seats in the House, while the Democrats have 220. To become the speaker, a candidate needs to secure a majority of the votes cast by the members present and voting, which means at least 217 votes if all 435 members participate. This means that the Republicans need to flip at least five seats from the Democrats in the next election, or hope that some Democrats defect or abstain from voting.
However, even if the Republicans manage to win the majority, they still face a challenge of uniting their own ranks behind a single candidate. The party is divided between the conservative and moderate factions, as well as between the loyalists and critics of former President Donald Trump. Some of the potential contenders for the speaker role include:
- Kevin McCarthy: The current minority leader and the top Republican in the House. He is seen as a close ally of Trump and has supported his baseless claims of election fraud. He also opposed the impeachment of Trump after the January 6 Capitol riot. However, he has faced criticism from some conservatives for not being aggressive enough in challenging the Democrats’ agenda.
- Steve Scalise: The current minority whip and the second-ranking Republican in the House. He is also a Trump supporter and a leader of the conservative wing of the party. He survived a shooting in 2017 during a congressional baseball practice and has since become a vocal advocate for gun rights. He has expressed interest in running for speaker if McCarthy declines or fails to secure enough support.
- Liz Cheney: The current vice chair of the House Republican Conference and the third-ranking Republican in the House. She is one of the most prominent critics of Trump within the party and voted to impeach him after the Capitol riot. She has also clashed with McCarthy and Scalise over their handling of the election results and the riot investigation. She has said that she is not ruling out a bid for speaker, but she faces a tough reelection campaign in her home state of Wyoming, where Trump remains popular.
- Jim Jordan: A founding member of the Freedom Caucus, a group of hard-line conservatives who often oppose the party leadership on fiscal and social issues. He is a staunch defender of Trump and has been accused of downplaying or ignoring allegations of sexual abuse by a former team doctor when he was a wrestling coach at Ohio State University. He has not officially announced his candidacy for speaker, but he has hinted at his interest in several interviews.
The table below summarizes some of the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate:
| Candidate | Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|---|
| McCarthy | – Has experience as leader and fundraiser – Has good relationship with Trump and his base -Has support from most of the party establishment |
– Lacks charisma and vision – Faces opposition from some conservatives – Has flip-flopped on some issues |
| Scalise | – Has strong conservative credentials – Has personal story of resilience and courage – Has loyal network of allies and supporters |
– May be too conservative for some moderates – May be overshadowed by McCarthy – May face scrutiny over his past ties to white supremacists |
| Cheney | – Has reputation as principled and independent – Has foreign policy expertise and experience – Has support from some anti-Trump Republicans |
– Is unpopular with Trump and his base – Is isolated within her own party – Is vulnerable to primary challenge |
| Jordan | – Has appeal to grassroots activists and donors – Has influence within the Freedom Caucus – Has media savvy and combative style |
– Is divisive and controversial – Is distrusted by some party leaders – Is implicated in sexual abuse scandal |
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