Who will be the Republican front runner in 2024?

Who will be the Republican front runner in 2024?: The 2024 presidential election is still more than three years away, but the race for the Republican nomination is already heating up. Many potential candidates have been visiting key states, raising money, and building their profiles. But who has the best chance of becoming the GOP standard-bearer in the next election?

The Frontrunner: Donald Trump

The undisputed leader of the Republican field is former President Donald Trump. Despite losing the 2020 election to Joe Biden and facing multiple legal challenges, Trump remains the most popular and influential figure in the party. He has a loyal base of supporters who would follow him to the end, and he has shown no signs of backing down from his political ambitions.

According to a poll by Morning Consult and Politico conducted in January 2021¹, Trump would win 42% of the vote in a hypothetical Republican primary, far ahead of any other contender. He also has a strong advantage in fundraising, media attention, and endorsements. He has hinted at running again in 2024, saying that he will “see you in four years” at a White House Christmas party¹.

However, Trump also faces significant obstacles to securing the nomination. He is widely disliked by a majority of Americans, and he has alienated many moderate and independent voters with his divisive rhetoric and actions. He is also facing several legal investigations, including four felony indictments for tax fraud, obstruction of justice, campaign finance violations, and inciting an insurrection at the Capitol on January 6². These cases could damage his reputation, drain his resources, or even land him in jail.

Moreover, Trump may not have the same enthusiasm and momentum that he had in 2016 and 2020. Some of his supporters may be disillusioned by his defeat, his false claims of election fraud, and his lack of leadership during the coronavirus pandemic. Some may also prefer a fresh face or a more conventional candidate who can appeal to a broader coalition of voters.

The Contenders: Ron DeSantis and Tim Scott

If Trump decides not to run or is unable to run, the race for the Republican nomination would become much more competitive and unpredictable. Two candidates who have emerged as strong contenders are Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott.

DeSantis has gained national prominence for his handling of the pandemic in Florida, where he resisted lockdowns, mask mandates, and vaccine passports. He has positioned himself as a defender of individual liberty, economic freedom, and public safety. He has also embraced Trump’s agenda and style, earning his praise and endorsement.

DeSantis is popular among conservatives, libertarians, and anti-establishment voters who value his boldness and independence. He also has the advantage of governing a large and diverse state that is crucial for winning the general election. According to a poll by Echelon Insights conducted in July 2021, DeSantis would win 21% of the vote in a Republican primary without Trump, leading the field.

Scott is another rising star in the Republican Party who has impressed many with his personal story, his policy expertise, and his communication skills. He is the only Black Republican senator and one of the most prominent voices on racial issues in the GOP. He delivered a well-received response to Biden’s address to Congress in April 2021, where he declared that “America is not a racist country” but also acknowledged the need for police reform.

Scott is respected by both moderates and conservatives for his pragmatic and principled approach to governing. He has worked on bipartisan legislation on issues such as criminal justice reform, infrastructure, and health care. He also has a strong record of electoral success, winning three statewide races in South Carolina by comfortable margins.

Scott has not ruled out running for president in 2024, saying that he will “pray about it” and “listen to what God says”. According to the Echelon Insights poll, Scott would win 10% of the vote in a Republican primary without Trump, placing third behind DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence.

The Conversation: Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Doug Burgum

Beyond Trump, DeSantis, and Scott, there are several other potential candidates who are part of the conversation for the Republican nomination in 2024. These include:

Vivek Ramaswamy: A biotech entrepreneur and author who has been critical of corporate America’s embrace of woke culture and social justice activism. He has argued that these trends are undermining democracy, capitalism, and free speech. He recently published a book titled “Woke Inc.: Inside Corporate America’s Social Justice Scam” that has received positive reviews from conservative media outlets.
Nikki Haley: A former governor of South Carolina and ambassador to the United Nations under Trump. She has a reputation as a savvy and charismatic leader who can balance the interests of the GOP establishment and the Trump base. She has also been vocal on foreign policy issues, especially regarding China, Iran, and Israel.
Mike Pence: A former vice president, governor of Indiana, and congressman. He has a loyal following among evangelical Christians and social conservatives who appreciate his faith and values. He also has experience and credibility on economic and national security issues. However, he has also faced backlash from some Trump supporters who blame him for certifying Biden’s victory in the Electoral College.
Chris Christie: A former governor of New Jersey and presidential candidate in 2016. He is known for his blunt and combative style, his pragmatic and moderate record, and his close relationship with Trump. He has also been outspoken on the need for the GOP to move on from the 2020 election and focus on the future.
Doug Burgum: A current governor of North Dakota and former software executive. He has been praised for his innovative and effective management of the pandemic in his state, where he implemented a data-driven and flexible approach that balanced public health and economic recovery. He has also championed education reform, environmental stewardship, and digital transformation.

The Outsiders: Asa Hutchinson, Will Hurd, Francis Suarez, Larry Elder

Finally, there are some candidates who are considered outsiders or long shots for the Republican nomination in 2024. These include:

Asa Hutchinson: A current governor of Arkansas and former congressman, cabinet secretary, and federal prosecutor. He has been a moderate and pragmatic leader who has supported Medicaid expansion, criminal justice reform, and immigration reform. He has also opposed some of the more controversial bills passed by his state legislature, such as banning transgender youth from receiving gender-affirming health care or participating in school sports.
Will Hurd: A former congressman from Texas and CIA officer. He is one of the few Black Republicans who have served in Congress, and he represented a swing district that spans the U.S.-Mexico border. He has been a vocal critic of Trump’s rhetoric and policies on immigration, trade, and foreign affairs. He has also advocated for bipartisanship, innovation, and cybersecurity.
Francis Suarez: A current mayor of Miami and former city commissioner. He is a young and dynamic leader who has attracted attention for his efforts to make Miami a hub for technology, finance, and entrepreneurship. He has also been supportive of climate action, racial justice, and immigration reform. He is a Cuban American who can appeal to the growing Hispanic population in the country.
Larry Elder: A current radio host and columnist who is running for governor of California in the recall election against Democrat Gavin Newsom. He is a libertarian and conservative firebrand who has espoused controversial views on issues such as abortion, affirmative action, minimum wage, and climate change. He is also a Black Republican who has challenged the mainstream narrative on race relations in America.

Conclusion

The 2024 Republican presidential field is wide open and diverse, with many candidates offering different visions, values, and strategies for the party and the country. The outcome of the race will depend on many factors, such as Trump’s decision, the state of the economy, the impact of the pandemic, the mood of the voters, and the performance of the candidates.

The Republican nominee will face a formidable challenge from the incumbent Democrat Joe Biden or his successor Kamala Harris, who will have the advantages of incumbency, fundraising, media coverage, and demographic trends. However, the Republican nominee will also have an opportunity to capitalize on the weaknesses of the Democrats, such as their progressive agenda, their internal divisions, their foreign policy blunders, and their vulnerability in key states.

The 2024 presidential election will be a critical moment for the future of America. It will determine whether the country will continue on its current path or change course in a new direction. It will also shape the identity and direction of the Republican Party for years to come.

Summary table

Candidate	Role	Strengths	Weaknesses
Donald Trump	Former President	Popularity among GOP base; fundraising; media attention; endorsements	Unpopularity among general public; legal troubles; loss of momentum; divisiveness
Ron DeSantis	Florida Governor	Handling of pandemic; defense of liberty; Trump’s support; appeal in Florida	Lack of national experience; polarizing style; potential scandals
Tim Scott	South Carolina Senator	Personal story; policy expertise; communication skills; bipartisan appeal	Lack of name recognition; competition from other Black candidates; moderation
Vivek Ramaswamy	Biotech entrepreneur and author	Critique of woke culture; business success; outsider status; intellectualism	Lack of political experience; unknown to most voters; niche appeal