The upcoming 2024 presidential election is anticipated to witness a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who has publicly declared his intention to seek re-election. Despite losing the 2020 election to Biden and refusing to concede, Trump has managed to maintain a significant influence over the Republican Party and a devoted base of supporters.
Nevertheless, the likelihood of Trump securing victory in the 2024 election appears to be relatively low, as indicated by the latest polls and analysis. Several factors pose potential obstacles to his pursuit of a second term, including his legal predicaments, lack of popularity, constitutional limitations, and potential competitors.
Legal predicaments
Presently, Trump is confronted with four criminal trials in New York and Georgia, where he faces charges of tax fraud, obstruction of justice, election interference, and incitement of the January 6 Capitol riot. Furthermore, ongoing investigations into his involvement in the attempted coup and his endeavors to overturn the election results in multiple states may result in additional charges.
These legal challenges have the potential to tarnish his reputation, deplete his resources, and divert his attention from his campaign. Moreover, they could lead to convictions that could render him ineligible to run for office or even result in imprisonment.
Unpopularity
Donald Trump is also regarded as one of the most unpopular presidents in the history of the United States, as a majority of Americans hold a negative perception of him. According to the most recent PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll, 56 percent of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, while only 41 percent view him favorably. Furthermore, 60 percent of voters do not wish for him to be reelected as president.
The reasons behind Trump’s lack of popularity can be attributed, in part, to his divisive and inflammatory rhetoric, mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, undermining of democratic principles, and involvement in the Capitol riot. Additionally, his unpopularity may alienate moderate and independent voters who are dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden, leading them to consider a third-party candidate or abstain from voting.
Constitutional Limitations
Another obstacle that Trump faces is the constitutional barrier that restricts a president to serving only two terms in office. The 22nd Amendment, which was ratified in 1951, explicitly states that “no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” Consequently, Trump, who was elected in 2016 and lost in 2020, is ineligible to run for a third term.
Certain supporters of Trump have argued that he could circumvent this amendment by asserting that his first term was illegitimate or by running as a third-party candidate. However, legal experts have dismissed these scenarios as unrealistic and unconstitutional. Therefore, any attempt by Trump to pursue a third term would likely encounter legal challenges and public opposition.
Potential rivals
Trump is not the only potential candidate for the Republican nomination in 2024. Other prominent figures, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, have also emerged as possible contenders. DeSantis, who has been praised by Trump for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and his conservative policies, has gained popularity among Republicans and independents.
According to the same PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll4, DeSantis is the second most popular choice for the GOP nomination after Trump, with 17 percent of Republican voters saying they would support him. DeSantis also has a higher favorability rating than Trump among all voters (46 percent vs. 41 percent) and a lower unfavorability rating (36 percent vs. 56 percent)4.
Therefore, DeSantis could pose a serious threat to Trump’s chances of securing the Republican nomination or winning the general election. He could also attract some of the voters who dislike both Trump and Biden and are looking for an alternative.
Conclusion
In conclusion, it is important to note that the upcoming 2024 presidential election is subject to various factors that may influence the voters’ preferences and opinions. These factors include the state of the economy, the COVID-19 situation, foreign policy issues, and the performance of the current administration. However, based on current evidence and analysis, it appears that the likelihood of Donald J. Trump winning the 2024 presidential election is quite low. This is due to several legal and political challenges that may impede his bid for a second term, as well as his unpopularity among most Americans and competition from other candidates within and outside his party.
Therefore, it is improbable that Donald J. Trump will emerge victorious in the 2024 presidential election.
Table:
| Candidate | Party | Support (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Biden | Democrat | 49 |
| Trump | Republican | 47 |
| Third-party | N/A | 4 |
FAQ:
Q: When did Trump announce his intention to run in 2024?
A: Trump announced his intention to run in 2024 on November 15, 2022.
Q: What are the legal challenges that Trump faces?
A: Trump is facing four criminal trials in New York and Georgia, and could face more charges from the investigations into the Capitol riot and the election interference.
Q: How can Trump run for a third term despite the 22nd Amendment?
A: He can’t. The 22nd Amendment prohibits anyone from being elected president more than twice. Any attempt to circumvent this amendment would be unconstitutional .
