Will Republicans be forced to nominate Trump in 2024?: Donald Trump, the former president and current Republican frontrunner to take on Joe Biden in 2024, appears unstoppable, with all indications suggesting his daunting lead among Republican voters will remain steady no matter what happens to him between today and his likely nomination at next summer’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee1. But does the Republican Party have to nominate Trump in 2024? And what are the potential obstacles that could prevent him from winning?
The answer to the first question is no. Political parties do not have to nominate a candidate if the candidate used to be president. “It’s absolutely not mandatory,” Matthew Dallek, a historian and professor of political management at George Washington University, told USA TODAY. “Presidents are not entitled.”
The power to choose the nominee lies with the party delegates, who are elected by voters in individual states and territories. These delegates are bound by the rules of their state parties and the national party to vote for a certain candidate on the first ballot at the convention. However, if no candidate wins a majority of delegates on the first ballot, which is unlikely but possible if Trump faces strong opposition from other candidates or loses support from some delegates, then the convention becomes contested and most delegates are free to vote for whoever they want on subsequent ballots.
This scenario could open the door for an alternative candidate to emerge and challenge Trump for the nomination. However, this would require a coordinated effort by anti-Trump forces within the party, as well as a viable alternative candidate who could appeal to a broad coalition of delegates and voters. Such a candidate could be someone who is already running, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis or former Vice President Mike Pence, or someone who is not running but could be drafted by the party, such as former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley or Maryland Governor Larry Hogan.
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However, even if such a scenario occurs, it would be very risky and controversial for the party to deny Trump the nomination if he has won the most votes and delegates in the primaries and caucuses. Such a move could alienate Trump’s loyal base of supporters, who make up a large and influential segment of the Republican electorate. It could also trigger legal challenges from Trump and his allies, who could argue that the party violated its own rules or the constitutional rights of voters.
The second question is what are the potential obstacles that could prevent Trump from winning the nomination. One obvious obstacle is his legal troubles. Trump is facing multiple criminal and civil trials for alleged wrongdoing, including for trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election, mishandling classified information, and paying off a porn star. These trials could result in convictions, fines, or even prison sentences for Trump, which could damage his reputation and credibility among voters and delegates. They could also prevent him from campaigning effectively or even appearing on the ballot in some states.
Another possible obstacle is a constitutional challenge. Some legal experts have argued that Trump is disqualified from running for president again under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which bars anyone who has engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the United States from holding any office under the United States. This argument is based on the claim that Trump incited the violent mob that stormed the Capitol on January 6th in an attempt to stop Congress from certifying Biden’s victory. However, this argument faces several hurdles, such as proving that Trump’s actions amounted to insurrection or rebellion, getting Congress or a court to enforce Section 3 against him, and overcoming possible counterarguments that Section 3 does not apply to former presidents or that it violates other constitutional provisions.
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A third potential obstacle is a political challenge. Trump may face stronger competition from other candidates than he did in 2016 or 2020, especially if some of them can appeal to different factions of the party or offer a fresh alternative to Trump’s divisive style and policies. For example, DeSantis has emerged as a popular figure among conservatives for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and his resistance to federal mandates. Pence has maintained his loyalty to Trump but also tried to distance himself from some of his controversies. Haley has criticized Trump for his role in the Capitol riot but also praised him for his achievements. Hogan has positioned himself as a moderate who can work across party lines and win in a blue state.
These candidates could chip away at Trump’s support among some voters and delegates, especially if they can perform well in early states like Iowa or New Hampshire or win over key constituencies like suburban women or minorities. They could also benefit from a change in the nominating rules that could make it easier for them to win delegates or prevent Trump from clinching the nomination early. For example, some states may adopt a proportional allocation of delegates instead of a winner-take-all system, or some states may move their primaries or caucuses later in the calendar to give more weight to later states.
In conclusion, Trump is the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2024, but he faces legal, political, and constitutional challenges that could derail his bid. The Republican Party does not have to nominate him, but it would be very difficult and risky to deny him the nomination if he has won the most votes and delegates in the primaries and caucuses. The only realistic way to stop him is to beat him fair and square at the ballot box, which would require a strong and unified alternative candidate who can appeal to a wide range of voters and delegates.
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FAQ:
Q: When is the 2024 presidential election?
- The 2024 presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 5th.
Q: How many delegates are needed to win the Republican nomination?
- A candidate needs to win a majority of 1,276 delegates out of a total of 2,550 delegates to win the Republican nomination.
Q: Who are the current candidates running for the Republican nomination?
- As of September 2023, the current candidates who have officially announced their campaigns are Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Josh Hawley, and Larry Hogan.
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